Hail in Surprise · May 18, 2026
Convective day · May 18, 2026 · noon–noon UTC
Severity
The most severe storm Surprise has seen in the last 12 months
Overview's storm severity score weighs hailstone size, homes in the footprint, and ground-truth reports.
- Peak hail signal
- 44 /100
- Homes exposed
- 34 /100
- Ground truth
- 0 /100
Largest radar-indicated size — a signal of damage potential, not confirmation.
How many homes sit inside the storm's footprint.
Independent storm reports filed with the NWS.
Evidence / storm surfaces
How Surprise saw the hail — from two instruments
We map this storm two ways: the NEXRAD radar signatures the storm produced overhead, and the radar-estimated size of the hail in the air. The two surfaces don’t have to match — where they diverge is where estimated size aloft ran ahead of, or behind, what the signatures caught.
Radar signature field NEXRAD radar signatures — the point detections the storm produced overhead. A signature is where the radar saw hail, not a confirmed stone on the ground.
Estimated size field Maximum hail size as estimated from radar aloft. Treat it as the storm's ceiling — the largest supportable stone — rather than a ground measurement.
The storm in context
Where May 18, 2026 sits in Surprise's hail record.
This was Surprise's 1st recorded hail day — the first hail day in our records for the city. By severity it ranks 1st of the 5 storms we have logged here. Radar put the day's largest stone over Surprise at 1.75" — the largest NEXRAD radar signature.
The May 18, 2026 convective day was bigger than Surprise: the same system put hail over 726 other tracked cities, 121 of them in Nebraska. Nearest: Rising City (7 miles north, up to 2"); Gresham (7 miles south, up to 1.25"); Staplehurst (9 miles southeast, up to 1.25").
These maps are stills. In the app this date is one of 5 Surprise storm dates on a live map — both surfaces, the reports, and a replay — and the same map is where you draw the swath. This page rebuilds nightly.
Ground reports
What people on the ground reported
These are storm reports filed with the National Weather Service and released through the NOAA Storm Prediction Center — public-domain observations from spotters, the public, and NWS surveys. We quote each one exactly as filed.
For this storm over Surprise, the NWS report log is empty — a common outcome, since ground reports only happen when someone witnesses the hail and takes the time to call it in. The detection record for the date lives in the radar maps above.
High damage potential
What 1.75" hail means for Surprise roofs.
Hail around an inch and a half is capable of cracking shingles, stripping granules, and denting gutters, vents, and siding. Risk is usually greatest near the strongest radar signal, but property-level damage still requires an on-site inspection.
Radar reading · not confirmed damage
Roofing exposure
What this storm is worth to a roofer.
Potential roof exposure
$576K
Potential roof exposure — 48 homes × the ~$12,000 industry-average hail roof claim. Exposure, not confirmed damage.
Claim window
May 2028
Claims from this storm can typically be filed until around May 2028 — the window to reach these homeowners while it's still open. Deadlines vary by policy and state.
Names and phones for every home in the footprint: at most $10 on top of the $150 plan.
Surprise hail history
Other storms in Surprise.
Estimated-size surface Sep 18, 2026
0.5"
Estimated-size surface Aug 17, 2026
0.75"
Estimated-size surface Jun 13, 2026
0.75"
Estimated-size surface Jun 10, 2026
0.5"The next storm won’t wait for you.
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